6 months is likely too short a window yet, but with Trump returning to power, I think this is very much back on the table.
Will wait to see how Israel proceeds vis-a-vis Iran and its proxies over the next few months, but I can see a scenario where they escalate dramatically, achieving strategic goals, and then declare victory, bringing major combat to a close. With most conflict wrapped up, the Saudis and others would be able to come back to the table without being seen to abandon the Palestinians.
That said, the above scenario still requires a number of specific things to go the right way quickly, only bumping my estimate to 4% for now.
-0.667225
Relative Brier Score
158
Forecasts
16
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 6 | 68 | 59 | 432 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 134 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 56 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 50 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(+3%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
96%
(-3%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
(+5%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
5%
(-5%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
Bumping slightly more as it sounds like they're targeting a broad range of military targets.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+70%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
10%
(-70%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
Looks like there are ongoing strikes across Iran tonight, could well strike a nuclear and certainly an offensive missile facility.
In my last forecast I missed that missile facilities were included, so making a big shift with thr latest news
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+2%)
Yes
2%
(-2%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
Yes
91%
No
Resolution criteria set a pretty high bar. Seems like inflation spiraling out of control might be the most possible of the group, esp. since the EGX30 one is within a calendar month.
Apart from Suez traffic, Egypt seems mostly unaffected by the ongoing conflicts around Israel, and I'm not sure I see that changing. Probably the greatest risks are internal at this point.
A bit tricky trying to calibrate for a full year, but starting off fairly low?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Jumping up to 50 based on all the rumours. Have to catch up reading yet, but where there's smoke...
Why might you be wrong?
Sometimes it's just smoke
Hi @Wooster, the base rate for media reporting about the health of the heads of authoritarian regimes is really like "most of the time smoke is just smoke", I wrote more here if you are interested: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/147387