Wooster

About:

Manager @ Cultivate Labs, bringing crowd forecasting to clients in finance, government, and the corporate world. Background in hedge fund investing at one of the big Canadian pension plans.

You can find me forecasting as Wooster on RANGE and Ziewert on GJO, the other public forecasting platforms powered by Cultivate Labs:

https://www.rangeforecasting.org/forecaster/Wooster
https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Ziewert

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2023 Season Stats

-0.667225

Relative Brier Score

158

Forecasts

16

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 5 78 57 430
Comments 0 0 2 2 25
Questions Forecasted 0 4 21 16 56
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 7 6 49
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Wooster made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95% (+5%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
5% (-5%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025

Bumping slightly more as it sounds like they're targeting a broad range of military targets. 

Files
New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Wooster made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90% (+70%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
10% (-70%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025

Looks like there are ongoing strikes across Iran tonight, could well strike a nuclear and certainly an offensive missile facility. 


In my last forecast I missed that missile facilities were included, so making a big shift with thr latest news 

Files
New Prediction
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Wooster made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
98% (+2%)
Yes
2% (-2%)
No

Time

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Wooster earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Resolution criteria set a pretty high bar. Seems like inflation spiraling out of control might be the most possible of the group, esp. since the EGX30 one is within a calendar month. 

Apart from Suez traffic, Egypt seems mostly unaffected by the ongoing conflicts around Israel, and I'm not sure I see that changing. Probably the greatest risks are internal at this point. 


A bit tricky trying to calibrate for a full year, but starting off fairly low?  

Files
New Badge
Wooster earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Wooster made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
4% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Wooster made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8% (-2%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Aug 30, 2025
92% (+2%)
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Aug 30, 2025

Moderating toward the crowd.

Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Wooster made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 05:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6% (0%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
94% (0%)
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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