Looks like there are ongoing strikes across Iran tonight, could well strike a nuclear and certainly an offensive missile facility.
In my last forecast I missed that missile facilities were included, so making a big shift with thr latest news
-0.065076
Relative Brier Score
57
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+70%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
10%
(-70%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+2%)
Yes
2%
(-2%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
Yes
91%
No
Resolution criteria set a pretty high bar. Seems like inflation spiraling out of control might be the most possible of the group, esp. since the EGX30 one is within a calendar month.
Apart from Suez traffic, Egypt seems mostly unaffected by the ongoing conflicts around Israel, and I'm not sure I see that changing. Probably the greatest risks are internal at this point.
A bit tricky trying to calibrate for a full year, but starting off fairly low?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
4%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(-2%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Aug 30, 2025
92%
(+2%)
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Aug 30, 2025
Moderating toward the crowd.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 05:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
94%
(0%)
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Bumping slightly more as it sounds like they're targeting a broad range of military targets.