RAND Forecasting Initiative

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-0.000451

Relative Brier Score

1

Forecasts

0

Upvotes

Forecasting Activity

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No forecasts in the past 3 months

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Definitions

Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, China Politics, Relations, and Technology

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My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?

Yurigda made their 1st forecast (view all):

Compare to me

Probability

Answer

Yes

Why do you think you're right?

US will become Republican and Taiwan is one bipartisan agreement.

China will not break the supply chain for Russian assets.

Taiwan has capabilities to resist with lessons learned.

Files

Why might you be wrong?

Cyber attack from Autocracies