141st
Accuracy Rank

alter_hugo

Hugo
About:

Feel free to contact me at [email protected].

I started forecasting a year ago after reading Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. I also participate in Good Judgement Open - find me at @alter_hugo.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 07, 2024 05:30PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 49% Nov 7, 2024 to May 7, 2025 Dec 7, 2024 57%
No 51% Nov 7, 2024 to May 7, 2025 Dec 7, 2024 43%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 12, 2024 03:03PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 Dec 12, 2024 1%
No 100% Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 Dec 12, 2024 99%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 12, 2024 03:04PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 Dec 12, 2024 1%
No 100% Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 Dec 12, 2024 99%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 12, 2024 03:04PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 12, 2024 03:06PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 4% 7%
Armenia 1% 2%
Georgia 1% 4%
Kazakhstan 1% 2%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 12, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 14% Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 Dec 12, 2024 10%
No 86% Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 Dec 12, 2024 90%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 12, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 3% 1%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive 24% 13%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive 38% 51%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive 32% 34%
More than or equal to 80 3% 2%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 12, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 2%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 12, 2024 03:14PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 23% Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025 Dec 12, 2024 24%
No 77% Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025 Dec 12, 2024 76%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 12, 2024 03:15PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 100% 97%
No 0% 3%
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