RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 05:07AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	29%	35%	-6%	-4%
No	71%	65%	+6%	+4%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 05:07AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 05:07AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 05:07AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	0%	+0%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 05:08AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	8%	-6%	-5%
No	98%	92%	+6%	+5%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2026	Jan 27, 2025	12%	-8%	+7%
No	96%	Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2026	Jan 27, 2025	88%	+8%	-7%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 06:47PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	9%	+6%	-7%
No	85%	91%	-6%	+7%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 06:57PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	38%	-3%	-3%
No	65%	62%	+3%	+3%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 02:10PM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	24%	Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025	Feb 1, 2025	22%	+2%	-1%
No	76%	Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025	Feb 1, 2025	78%	-2%	+1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 04:06PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

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