Confirmed previous forecast
0.141131
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
48
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 314 | 48 | 679 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 46 | 36 | 78 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 6 | 49 | 25 | 72 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 3 | 33 | 9 | 103 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Less than or equal to 49
12%
(-4%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
38%
(-5%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
45%
(+8%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
4%
(+2%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
Updating in the direction of the crowd. The US seems to be distancing from the EU in many ways, which might heighten the threat perception of Russia towards Germany. Particularly now that the media is flooded with Trump's controversial messages.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There might be a chance the index could surpass 80, but as advances in Ukraine by the Russian military are relatively slow and have been so for many months this seems unlikely.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-14%)
Yes
97%
(+14%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Unfortuantely been neglecting this question. The gap has grown too much and there's little time left for NVIDIA to pick up.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Very unlikely as there are no clear intentions from Huawei's side until now. There is little time left.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Surprise announcements do happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Egypt's inflation rate seems to be decreasing: the headline inflation rate reached a record high of 38% in September 2023, but has since fallen. Also, the Egyptian pound has remained pretty stable throughout the last year, with a total fluctuation of less than 10%.
https://thearabweekly.com/egypt-annual-inflation-rate-inches-down-24-percent-january
Files
Why might you be wrong?
MENA has always been a volatile region, and tensions might escalate quickly. But economic collapse might take longer after the first hints will show.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-1%)
Yes
Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 10, 2026
90%
(+1%)
No
Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 10, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Aligning with the lowest value of mortality rate by actuarial tables - apparently there are no political threats in the foreseeable future.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Disease can evolve quickly at Khamenei's age.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Very unlikely. China is more likely to use subtler ways to use Taiwan to serve their interests. Warfare is just not the CCP's way.
Why might you be wrong?
NA