alter_hugo

Going down a bit, particularly in Bolivia. The race for the presidency between Evo Morales and Luis Arce is too fierce for the latter to allow public opinion about the economy to take yet another blow.

Significantly increasing as reports about the secret appointment of Khamenei's second son as the next Ayatollah. Many rumors about the declining health of the current leader are circulating and it is difficult to assess their accuracy at this point. In any case, a year is a long time to withstand for a 85-year old in case he is effectively ill, and apparently it is best for the government's interest to make sure the transition takes place with at least one public appearance of Ali Khamenei.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/ali-khameneis-son-mojtaba-set-to-take-over-as-irans-supreme-leader-report/articleshow/115385642.cms

No health concerns for Khamenei - it is likely that the regime's staunch position against Israel will actually make the Ayatollah's grip on power even stronger.

Correcting as I accidentally wrote 67% instead of 7%. I believe the chances are not negligible now, but it would be rather unlikely.