alter_hugo

Trying not to be reckless lowering my forecast, but apparently a declaration of war is far from strategic for Iran in the foreseeable future. It makes more sense to continue with discontinued, small-scale attacks.

Lowering in Bolivia as current president Arce needs to pull every trick off his sleeve not to make the economy look weak as he runs for reelection against Evo Morales.

Lowering as this seems less likely even now that tensions have escalated. Crossfire has been taken place without a formal declaration of war.

Going slightly above 1/3 chances as the USA might be less interested in supporting military operations overseas, particularly with the very realistic chance Donald Trump can be reelected in a week. However, I still feel it is unlikely support will be totally discontinued.  

Confirming  previous forecast.

Going further down in the direction of the crowd. As @MrLittleTexas pointed out, Russia has had more than two years to try this type of warfare and it has not materialized. It would probably not be strategic for the Russian interests as it would be seen as a serious provocation to the West without yielding significant results.

Going up a bit more in the direction of the crowd.