141st
Accuracy Rank

alter_hugo

Hugo
About:
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0.669797

Relative Brier Score

324

Forecasts

33

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 4 35 386 324 586
Comments 0 1 14 11 37
Questions Forecasted 3 25 58 48 66
Upvotes on Comments By This User 2 6 38 33 92
 Definitions
New Badge
alter_hugo
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
alter_hugo
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
24% (-3%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025
76% (+3%)
No
Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025

Trying not to be reckless lowering my forecast, but apparently a declaration of war is far from strategic for Iran in the foreseeable future. It makes more sense to continue with discontinued, small-scale attacks.

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New Badge
alter_hugo
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
alter_hugo
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
53% (0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
47% (0%)
No
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Lowering in Bolivia as current president Arce needs to pull every trick off his sleeve not to make the economy look weak as he runs for reelection against Evo Morales.

Files
New Prediction
alter_hugo
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
27% (-8%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025
73% (+8%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025

Lowering as this seems less likely even now that tensions have escalated. Crossfire has been taken place without a formal declaration of war.

Files
New Prediction

Going slightly above 1/3 chances as the USA might be less interested in supporting military operations overseas, particularly with the very realistic chance Donald Trump can be reelected in a week. However, I still feel it is unlikely support will be totally discontinued.  

Files
New Prediction

Confirming  previous forecast.

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New Prediction

Going further down in the direction of the crowd. As @MrLittleTexas pointed out, Russia has had more than two years to try this type of warfare and it has not materialized. It would probably not be strategic for the Russian interests as it would be seen as a serious provocation to the West without yielding significant results.

Files
New Prediction
alter_hugo
made their 15th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
78% (+4%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
22% (-4%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025

Going up a bit more in the direction of the crowd.

Files
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