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ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022) 0.035555
Mar 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Mar 17, 2022) -0.036282
Mar 16, 2022 04:00PM UTC In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial? 0.044719
Mar 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2022 -0.082687
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021? 0.000683
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? 0.047734
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? 0.278806
Feb 24, 2022 03:00PM UTC What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022? -0.052349
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) 0.0
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021) 0.31723
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? 0.001493
Jan 31, 2022 03:38PM UTC How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.006026
Jan 31, 2022 03:35PM UTC How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.037957
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021 -0.005788
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.004097
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.00149
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.002013
Jan 01, 2022 02:17PM UTC Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? 0.126041
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? -0.00307
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? 0.02534
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