Confirmed previous forecast
-0.036293
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
99
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 26 | 445 | 99 | 2368 |
| Comments | 0 | 9 | 75 | 37 | 639 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 25 | 73 | 36 | 258 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 37 | 5 | 296 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
13%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
60%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
27%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
6%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
25%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
51%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
18%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Argentina
7%
(0%)
Bolivia
3%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files