Forecasted Questions
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 01:30AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 01:30AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 67% | 2% | +65% | +0% |
| No | 33% | 98% | -65% | +0% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 01:31AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 01:31AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 24% | -10% | +2% |
| No | 86% | Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 76% | +10% | -2% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 01:32AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 01:32AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 8% | +12% | -2% |
| No | 80% | 92% | -12% | +2% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 01:36AM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Nov 19, 2024 01:36AM UTC
(13 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 | Dec 19, 2024 | 14% | +46% | +0% |
| No | 40% | Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 | Dec 19, 2024 | 86% | -46% | +0% |