I am always right
0.205754
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
67%
(0%)
Yes
33%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I dont know.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
67%
Yes
Feb 6, 2025 to Aug 6, 2026
33%
No
Feb 6, 2025 to Aug 6, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
No human casualties, the retaliation from other nations is too large.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia doesn't seem to care about IGOs like NATO, as there is no party/body actually holding them accountable
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
Yes
77%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There will be a coup. I am calling it. And Putin will be imprisoned, his wife captured, children revealed. An upheaval is coming in the east...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 19, 2024 01:36AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
40%
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
North Korea has made increasingly aggressive moves in the west in asserting their position as a nuclear power. Especially with the expansion of the Kim Regime in incorporating new figures, North Korea is in a position to test their weapons.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Considering the Oct 25th airstrike and the incumbent president elect of the US, I see no foreseeable future in which Israel will willingly propose a ceasefire, much less one that is backed by the US.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 12, 2024 01:31AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025
86%
(0%)
No
Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Because zelensky has expressed openess toward the idea
Why might you be wrong?
trump.