North Korea has made increasingly aggressive moves in the west in asserting their position as a nuclear power. Especially with the expansion of the Kim Regime in incorporating new figures, North Korea is in a position to test their weapons.
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New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
40%
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Considering the Oct 25th airstrike and the incumbent president elect of the US, I see no foreseeable future in which Israel will willingly propose a ceasefire, much less one that is backed by the US.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025
86%
(0%)
No
Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
67%
(0%)
Yes
33%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025
90%
No
Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025
I am right because Iran is too volatile and weakly armed to take action in nuclear warfare right now.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 8, 2024 12:32AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
Yes
Oct 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2025
86%
No
Oct 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2025
Chinese AI tools backed with government funding feels unreliable, especially when its popularity is contingent on the support of the government and artificially inflated popularity.
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