RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 6, 2022 03:59AM	What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?	-0.026505
Jul 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 3, 2022 and Jul 3, 2022)	0.00288
Jul 1, 2022 01:33PM	By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO?	0.072816
Jun 17, 2022 04:00PM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between May 17, 2022 and Jun 17, 2022)	0.002439
Jun 4, 2022 04:00AM	What will be the price of crude oil futures on 3 June 2022?	-0.017061
Jun 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022)	0.0033
May 17, 2022 04:00PM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 17, 2022 and May 17, 2022)	0.001393
May 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	0.002913
Apr 17, 2022 04:00PM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 17, 2022 and Apr 17, 2022)	0.000816
Apr 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022)	0.0