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Accuracy Rank

belikewater

About:

I started forecasting at Good Judgment Open in 2021. Here's my profile there: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/99943

Email: [email protected]

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 31, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 2%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 1% 3%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 31, 2024 11:20PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 31, 2024 11:43PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 31, 2024 11:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 31, 2024 11:53PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 31, 2024 11:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 01, 2024 12:23AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 3%
No 97% Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 97%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 01, 2024 12:28AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 30% 21%
No 70% 79%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 01, 2024 12:53AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 33% 11%
No 67% 89%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 01, 2024 03:20AM UTC
(1 hour ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 20% Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025 Jan 1, 2025 5%
No 80% Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025 Jan 1, 2025 95%
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