6th
Accuracy Rank

belikewater

About:

I started forecasting at Good Judgment Open in 2021. Here's my profile there: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/99943

Email: [email protected]

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Forecasted Questions
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Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 01, 2024 04:42AM UTC
(7 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 70% 8%
No 30% 92%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 01, 2024 03:59AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 6% 2%
Latvia 6% 1%
Lithuania 4% 2%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 01, 2024 03:59AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 10% 7%
Armenia 1% 2%
Georgia 5% 4%
Kazakhstan 1% 2%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 01, 2024 04:49AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 01, 2024 10:30PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025 Jan 1, 2025 0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 01, 2024 10:30PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 01, 2024 10:30PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 01, 2024 10:30PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%
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