6th
Accuracy Rank

belikewater

About:

I started forecasting at Good Judgment Open in 2021. Here's my profile there: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/99943

Email: [email protected]

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Forecasted Questions
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Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(6 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 01, 2024 10:33PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 7%
No 80% 93%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 03:59AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 85% Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 56%
No 15% Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 44%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 04:10AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 60% 35%
No 40% 65%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 04:12AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 0%
No 98% Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 100%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 04:22AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 24% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% 0% 2%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% 2% 4%
More than or equal to 28% 98% 94%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 04:33AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 33% 35%
No 67% 65%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 04:34AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 04:34AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 99% 97%
No 1% 3%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 04:35AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 20% Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025 Feb 1, 2025 13%
No 80% Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025 Feb 1, 2025 87%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 04:36AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 15% Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025 Feb 1, 2025 23%
No 85% Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025 Feb 1, 2025 77%
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