Confirmed previous forecast
0.446219
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
55%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
After what appears to be decades of corruption in the Pakistani military, and larger dissatisfaction with the military at large, I think there's a slightly above 50/50 chance that Imran Khan is elected. He is a contentious figure in Pakistani politics, but it appears that the people (especially the youth) are fed up with the status quo.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Imran Khan is a contentious figure, and I can imagine there remain large portions of the population who are weary of him as a politician.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
Less than $4.60
30%
More than or equal to $4.60 but less than $4.80
9%
More than or equal to $4.80 but less than $5.00
0%
More than or equal to $5.00 but less than $5.20
0%
More than or equal to $5.20
Why do you think you're right?
With recent inflation and continued fighting in Ukraine, I think the price of gas is likely to increase from its current average, but not surpass $5.00.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The price of gas might hold steady around its current average of ~$3.50.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
As the fighting continues, I think it's probable that an EU country (perhaps Estonia) will provide additional military assistance to Ukraine in the next month and a half.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It might very well be the case that no other EU countries want to get involved and would rather help Ukraine through other means, not involving fighter jets.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
I don't know much about orbital rockets or anything space-related, but if China surpassed the US last year, it seems plausible that they could succeed at doing so again this year. I could be completely incorrect though.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It could be the case that the US sees that it "lost out" on the most number of rockets in 2021 by 4 rocket launches, and is getting a jump on rocket launches in the new year so as to get ahead of China.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files