RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Mar 3, 2024 05:00PM	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	0.569989
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	0.271431
Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM	What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023?	0.01464
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	0.176905
Apr 5, 2023 07:14PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	-0.000372
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	0.001274
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM	Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?	-0.152052
Feb 3, 2023 05:00AM	Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?	0.039807
Feb 1, 2023 06:46PM	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.000242
Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	-0.00311
Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	-0.000523