RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2022 01:25PM UTC	Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?	0.912029
Jun 30, 2022 09:02PM UTC	On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised?	0.24683
Jun 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between May 17, 2022 and Jun 17, 2022)	-0.000713
Jun 15, 2022 01:12PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jul 2022	0.008897
Jun 04, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will be the price of crude oil futures on 3 June 2022?	-0.026733
Jun 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022)	-0.000223
Jun 02, 2022 01:40PM UTC	What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?	-0.056307
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	0.197168
May 25, 2022 02:09PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?	0.103173
May 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 17, 2022 and May 17, 2022)	0.0
May 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jun 2022	-0.021186
May 06, 2022 09:00PM UTC	What will be the end of day closing price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on 6 May 2022?	0.097624
May 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	-0.00158
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	0.225083
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.041696
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	-0.059345
Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM UTC	When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?	-0.436666
Apr 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 17, 2022 and Apr 17, 2022)	0.005168
Apr 15, 2022 01:10PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - May 2022	0.005718
Apr 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022)	-0.006206

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