RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	0.003127
Mar 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Mar 17, 2022)	0.029475
Mar 16, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial?	0.058146
Mar 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2022	0.17933
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	0.170557
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?	0.026291
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.36184
Feb 24, 2022 03:00PM UTC	What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?	0.00989
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022)	0.146416
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC	Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021)	-0.076
Feb 11, 2022 10:00PM UTC	How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	0.032485
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	-0.256407
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?	-0.004348
Feb 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	-0.000836
Jan 31, 2022 03:38PM UTC	How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	-0.08158
Jan 31, 2022 03:35PM UTC	How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	-0.02593
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.16076
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC	How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021	-0.02934
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC	How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021	0.000654
Jan 31, 2022 02:49PM UTC	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.005449

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