27th
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cassandra

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
May 23, 2023 03:04PM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.000174
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023) 0.0
May 15, 2023 05:45PM UTC Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023? 0.000012
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? -0.004498
Apr 20, 2023 06:16PM UTC What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022? 0.275418
Apr 20, 2023 03:52PM UTC Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022? 0.18538
Apr 20, 2023 03:23PM UTC What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022? 0.354802
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022? -0.056456
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon? 0.065726
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022? 0.052177
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022? -0.025813
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022? -0.011842
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Which country will have published the second most "high impact" journal articles on artificial intelligence in 2022? 0.109441
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? -0.007091
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most "high impact" AI research publications? -0.115866
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia? -0.009865
Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM UTC What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023? 0.231043
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) -0.000242
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? 0.002919
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023? -0.000196
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