27th
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cassandra

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe? -0.025797
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.006419
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2022 and Jan 1, 2023) 0.001514
Dec 29, 2022 10:00PM UTC What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022? 0.005501
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM UTC In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022) -0.005354
Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM UTC How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? -0.005098
Dec 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2022 and Dec 17, 2022) 0.000763
Dec 15, 2022 01:02PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jan 2023 -0.005362
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) -0.00009
Dec 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022) 0.00253
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM UTC Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022? 0.392354
Nov 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2022 and Nov 17, 2022) 0.000619
Nov 15, 2022 01:01PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Dec 2022 0.038925
Nov 14, 2022 02:43PM UTC Will Google score more wins than any other submitter in the next round of the MLPerf training benchmarking suite? 0.015649
Nov 09, 2022 02:00PM UTC How many total unique AI systems will Baidu and Alibaba submit for the next round of the MLPerf benchmarking suite? -0.152343
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022) -0.004897
Nov 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022) 0.003348
Oct 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2022 and Oct 17, 2022) 0.00144
Oct 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Nov 2022 -0.064601
Oct 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022) 0.008173
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