18th
Accuracy Rank

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel
About:

I find geopolitical forecasting to be immensely entertaining. I also enjoy the research side, focusing on hybrid human/machine forecasting. Most recently, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207021001473, see also a webinar, https://youtu.be/iXuA2sE0Uzs.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Blog
Show more
View All Badges »
Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? -0.000008
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? -0.000572
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? -0.00138
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador? -0.032912
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia? -0.008243
Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela? 0.01087
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.070084
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.301197
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.001101
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? -0.000307
Apr 01, 2024 04:00PM UTC What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024? 0.031431
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024? -0.002615
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? -0.013468
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election? -0.005363
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? -0.001569
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation? -0.333115
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report? -0.079032
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? -0.000001
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive? -0.018996
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined? -0.250935
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel