RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 09:12AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	5%	+2%	+0%
No	93%	95%	-2%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 12:38PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
No	100%	98%	+2%	-1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 12:38PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 04:01PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	15%	24%	-9%	-3%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	25%	42%	-17%	+3%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 07:02PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	97%	+3%	+1%
No	0%	3%	-3%	-1%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(7 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:10AM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	97%	32%	+65%	-28%
No	3%	68%	-65%	+28%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 09:59PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(7 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 02:10PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	29%	29%	+0%	+3%
No	71%	71%	+0%	-3%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 05:20PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 05:20PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel

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