RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 03, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 3, 2024 to Mar 3, 2025	Oct 3, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Sep 3, 2024 to Mar 3, 2025	Oct 3, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 03, 2024 10:25PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	39%	43%	-4%	-3%
No	61%	57%	+4%	+3%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 04, 2024 12:36AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 4, 2024 to Mar 4, 2025	Dec 4, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 05, 2024 12:14AM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	17%	Sep 5, 2024 to Mar 5, 2025	Oct 5, 2024	6%	+11%	-1%
No	83%	Sep 5, 2024 to Mar 5, 2025	Oct 5, 2024	94%	-11%	+1%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 05, 2024 12:14AM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 5, 2024 to Mar 5, 2025	Oct 5, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Sep 5, 2024 to Mar 5, 2025	Oct 5, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
36 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 05, 2024 12:14AM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 05, 2024 12:16AM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Sep 5, 2024 to Sep 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	8%	-3%	+1%
No	95%	Sep 5, 2024 to Sep 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	92%	+3%	-1%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 05, 2024 10:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 07, 2024 09:48PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 08, 2024 12:22AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 8, 2024 to Mar 8, 2025	Oct 8, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Sep 8, 2024 to Mar 8, 2025	Oct 8, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel

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