Increasing slightly given stock market volatility and the Trump factor.
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
26
Forecasts
20
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 5 | 628 | 26 | 3744 |
| Comments | 2 | 5 | 272 | 31 | 2097 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 3 | 62 | 8 | 213 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 275 | 20 | 1727 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(+2%)
Yes
93%
(-2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is hard to make forecasts in a chaotic environment.
Files
New Prediction
cmeinel
quit this question on Apr 14, 2025 10:46AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(+1%)
Yes
Apr 5, 2025 to Oct 5, 2025
99%
(-1%)
No
Apr 5, 2025 to Oct 5, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
“Never interfere with an enemy while he's in the process of destroying himself” -- Napolean Bonaparte
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2025
100%
(+1%)
No
Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Still no sign of preparations for a test at https://www.38north.org/ The old site isn't usable and is damaged beyond repair. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2143171/north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-has-collapsed-and-may-be-why-kim-jong-un
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A new site might be built fast enough.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The gap between Apple and NVIDIA today is $407B. This compares with @geoffodlum reporting $239B March 16 here https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/161803
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I'm tempted to game this one by going to zero, but Murphy's Law is deterring me.
Part of the decline could be attributed by news of GenAI competitors seeking alternatives to NVIDIA:
https://research.aimultiple.com/ai-chip-makers/
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/nvidia-competitors
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-8%)
Yes
95%
(+8%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
There are new competitors who do great on the GenAI benchmarks without using the top of the line Nvidia chips, indeed not many chips of any sort.
https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2025/01/deepseek-r1-vs-openai-o1/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
These cheap newcomers look great, but are they? Indeed, even the biggest users of Nvidia chips have questionable performances.
Several aspects here:
(1) So what if they only look great by being designed, thanks to their training data, to do well on the benchmark tests? Consumers only care about results. Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2025/03/chatbots-benchmark-tests/681929/
(2) If the cheap new GenAIs are making consumers happy, who cares what is under the hood?
(3) What if the use case collapses for users of high end GenAIs?
(4) Chaos among the owners of the high end GenAIs and their beloved Donald Trump could easily crash the US and even world economy. Elon Musk, looking at you!
(5) Yet, the economy and markets for Nvidia chips could remain elevated and ever surge before the end of May.
(6) If markets were rational, how come our Pro Forecasters aren't all billionaires? Are there any billionaire Pro Focasters?
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 5, 2025 03:04AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 5, 2025 to Sep 5, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 5, 2025 to Sep 5, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Still no sign of preparations for a test at https://www.38north.org/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Might Trump's apparent abandonment of Ukraine entice NK to try to seize South Korea? Might that create a need for testing a small tactical nuclear weapon? In that case, NK might build a new test site to supercede the fatally damaged Mt. Mantap. Could they do that within six months? Alternatively, NK might decide to heck with the likely resulting radioactive pollution and set off one inside the new tunnel bored (how far?) into the rubble pile of Mt. Mantap.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Feb 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
Why do you think you're right?
Dateline 4-16-2025 The new US limit on Nvidia’s exports to China will cost the company $5.5 billion.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/nvidia-says-us-has-imposed-new-china-restrictions-on-h20-chips
Why might you be wrong?
Apple might get hit harder as who knows what Trump will tariff next and how much.