18th
Accuracy Rank

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel
About:

I find geopolitical forecasting to be immensely entertaining. I also enjoy the research side, focusing on hybrid human/machine forecasting. Most recently, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207021001473, see also a webinar, https://youtu.be/iXuA2sE0Uzs.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Blog
Show more
View All Badges »
Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia? 0.00064
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya? 0.00267
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023? 0.071898
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023? -0.004732
Jun 01, 2023 12:45AM UTC On 31 May 2023, how many total tax incentives will be listed in the Alternative Fuels Data Center? 0.042628
May 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC What will Ginkgo Bioworks foundry revenue be in the first quarter of 2023? -0.008152
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? -0.001704
Apr 20, 2023 03:52PM UTC Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022? -0.113994
Apr 20, 2023 03:23PM UTC What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022? 0.030915
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022? -0.024854
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined? 0.029934
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon? -0.006148
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022? -0.008909
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022? 0.001553
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022? 0.112082
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? -0.012406
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia? -0.007697
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.242126
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? 0.007783
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? 0.001538
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel