18th
Accuracy Rank

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel
About:

I find geopolitical forecasting to be immensely entertaining. I also enjoy the research side, focusing on hybrid human/machine forecasting. Most recently, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207021001473, see also a webinar, https://youtu.be/iXuA2sE0Uzs.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022? 0.122268
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC Will the French data protection authority (CNIL) announce a fine against Clearview AI before 31 July 2022? 0.044764
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM UTC Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022? 0.005153
Jul 29, 2022 01:55PM UTC How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022? -0.034513
Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023? 0.124498
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM UTC How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022? -0.050525
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? 0.047685
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) 0.007557
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022? 0.056354
Jul 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 17, 2022 and Jul 17, 2022) 0.001587
Jul 15, 2022 01:10PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Aug 2022 0.010945
Jul 06, 2022 03:59AM UTC What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022? 0.053597
Jul 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 3, 2022 and Jul 3, 2022) 0.001493
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 0.05887
Jul 01, 2022 01:33PM UTC By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO? -0.047511
Jul 01, 2022 01:25PM UTC Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022? 0.0427
Jun 30, 2022 09:02PM UTC On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised? 0.232814
Jun 15, 2022 01:12PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jul 2022 -0.006943
Jun 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022) 0.000658
Jun 02, 2022 01:40PM UTC What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022? -0.230855
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