18th
Accuracy Rank

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel
About:

I find geopolitical forecasting to be immensely entertaining. I also enjoy the research side, focusing on hybrid human/machine forecasting. Most recently, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207021001473, see also a webinar, https://youtu.be/iXuA2sE0Uzs.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022? 0.022673
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022? -0.053573
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? -0.080609
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022? -0.008906
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.056821
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.109221
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.001773
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? 0.047685
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) 0.007557
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? -0.018449
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -0.0313
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.034458
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) 0.000406
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