This one still feels very unlikely. Even if Iran feels negative impacts from a possible war with Israel I don’t think it will go so far as his removal. The only way this happened is if he gets sick or dies
2.341855
Relative Brier Score
203
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 7 | 221 | 162 | 693 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 36 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 4 | 67 | 43 | 160 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
85%
(+65%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
15%
(-65%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
I have to go with the crowd on this one given Israel’s plans for a ground invasion. If it doesn’t happen, I’ll adjust my score back down
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+2%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
95%
(-2%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Ticked up slightly given likelihood of Israel war with Hezbollah. This might have spillover effects that drag Iran into the war or have more tangible impacts that affect Iran’s ability to govern legitimately
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+75%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
10%
(-75%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
The planned ground invasion basically seems like war. I don’t know how it won’t spiral unless they call it off
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Aug 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 11:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(+10%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
80%
(-10%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
If it happens it will happen sooner or later. I’m updating my forecast to be more in line with my raised forecast on the other question of if war will happen
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 11:20PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
I think the regime still has too firm a grip on power. While protests may happen and the majority of people are definitely unhappy, the crackdowns have been harsh and I think it’s unlikely we’ll see any protests of the scale of what happened after de death of Mahsa Amini
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 11:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Aug 31, 2025
85%
(0%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Aug 31, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
I’m still at 15% because the latest trade of strikes didn’t escalate into war. That to me is a good sign that both sides still don’t want war and are still testing limits for face
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Things can spiral quickly and since they’re still resting limits, one side or the other could easily cross the line
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files