While North Korea is being more belligerent than ever, their last test was in 2017. They’ve proven their nuclear capabilities and it doesn’t seem like they’ll do it again, most likely sticking with ballistic missile tests. If they attack South Korea and restart the war, it won’t be either nukes
0.139035
Relative Brier Score
53
Forecasts
2
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New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
95%
No
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
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New Badge
Power Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
There are too many forces going against the SDF right now. Waning U.S. support, a strengthening anti-US coalition in Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China, which gives Assad room to maneuver, and a belligerent Turkey. I think by this time in two years we will see this resolve as a yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
2030 is still too soon for high volume EUV, there’s a reason why only ASML is doing it right now. However, by 2035 I do think they’ll have it. They’re definitely putting semiconductor manufacturing as a priority so I think it’s only a matter of time, but 2030 is to soon
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
They’re still dependent on ASML for DUV, k don’t think they’ll be able to manufacture their own that’s high volume by end of next year, it’s too short of a timeline
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
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