"Even though the news states, 'It is the first time a specific timeframe has been mentioned by the junta for the holding of polls,' (https://efe.com/en/other-news/2025-03-08/myanmars-election/) this might just be another attempt to appease the international community. Their intentions, however, may not align with what they claim.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+4%)
Yes
95%
(-4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Argentina
20%
(0%)
Bolivia
30%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
In the news, it is said that "Myanmar’s military government on Friday announced another six-month extension of its mandate to rule in preparation for elections it has said will be held this year, as the country enters its fifth year of crisis.
However, it did not announce an exact date for the polls." Last intention for the polls was in the same scenary and wasn´t realized
https://www.newsday.com/news/nation/myanmar-military-emergency-rule-extension-election-i26770
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The military government may try to hold elections to validate its regime, even if they do not really show the will of the people of Myanmar, as has happened in other countries recently
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Argentina
20%
Bolivia
30%
Ecuador
Argentina: There are still no real signs that the government will address one of the key underlying issues behind Argentina’s economic woes – the overvalued peso. So enter into default is a higher risk. (https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/latin-america-economics-update/argentina-default-risks-have-eased-not-gone-away)
Bolivia: Its debt is only 35% of its GDP, so it is likely that they will pay their external debt on time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
2%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Argentina: According to many economic experts, there is a positive outlook regarding Argentina's economy for 2025, considering the strategies implemented by its president, which have had a significant impact on the nation's macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, it has the support of the IMF and the United States, so it is expected to avoid default (https://www.kreston.com/article/argentinas-2025-debt-crisis/)
Ecuador: In the case of Ecuador, it has recorded 10 consecutive years of significant fiscal deficits, mostly due to the payment of public sector salaries. No news has been found regarding a reduction in its main source of current expenditures, which suggests that this trend will continue, potentially leading to a default in debt payments. (https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/negocios/cuanto-debera-pagar-ecuador-deuda-externa-interna-2025.html)
Why might you be wrong?
These countries may have some plans to make their debt payments that have not yet been made public at this time.