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New Prediction
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Argentina
20%
(0%)
Bolivia
30%
(0%)
Ecuador
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
In the news, it is said that "Myanmar’s military government on Friday announced another six-month extension of its mandate to rule in preparation for elections it has said will be held this year, as the country enters its fifth year of crisis.
However, it did not announce an exact date for the polls." Last intention for the polls was in the same scenary and wasn´t realized
https://www.newsday.com/news/nation/myanmar-military-emergency-rule-extension-election-i26770
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Why might you be wrong?
The military government may try to hold elections to validate its regime, even if they do not really show the will of the people of Myanmar, as has happened in other countries recently
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Argentina
20%
Bolivia
30%
Ecuador
Argentina: There are still no real signs that the government will address one of the key underlying issues behind Argentina’s economic woes – the overvalued peso. So enter into default is a higher risk. (https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/latin-america-economics-update/argentina-default-risks-have-eased-not-gone-away)
Bolivia: Its debt is only 35% of its GDP, so it is likely that they will pay their external debt on time
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
2%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
Yes
98%
(+2%)
No
Politics in Myanmar is controlled by militars, so even if they allow an election, according to National League for Democracy (NLD) party sympathizant, it will be only "a way of trying to bring about military rule with supposed civilian approval". It is probably that militaries staged a coup like in 2020. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/election-2025-08262024083618.html
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
2%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files