Confirmed previous forecast
0.687936
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
2%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+3%)
Yes
2%
(-3%)
No
After the elections, Maduro declared victory with 51.2%. However, all polls and people in Venezuela claimed that the opposition is the real winner of the elections. Maduro’s speech in Venezuelan state tellevision show that he is not relinquishing his position as president this year. (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw5yze5k500o)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(+2%)
Yes
96%
(-2%)
No
Although the military claims that elections are being prepared for next year (https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/myanmar-junta-chief-vows-to-hold-elections-in-2025/) there is no proof to support this assertion. In past years, they made similar claims, yet the actual voting did not take place.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Politics in Myanmar is controlled by militars, so even if they allow an election, according to National League for Democracy (NLD) party sympathizant, it will be only "a way of trying to bring about military rule with supposed civilian approval". It is probably that militaries staged a coup like in 2020. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/election-2025-08262024083618.html