RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict?	-0.000009
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	0.01706
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?	0.014308
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?	0.003018
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record at least 50 protests or riots or at least 10 protest- or riot-related fatalities in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province?	0.0
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia?	0.001988
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya?	0.000894
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023?	-0.000013
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?	-0.018334
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	0.016149
Apr 20, 2023 03:23PM UTC	What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022?	0.494265
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	0.178425
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	-0.029186
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	0.570396
Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM UTC	What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023?	0.056633
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.14384
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	-0.000077
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	-0.00045
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	0.003257
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	0.201896

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