140th
Accuracy Rank

daddyxi

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Forecasted Questions

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:35PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 12% Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 Nov 23, 2024 7%
No 88% Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 Nov 23, 2024 93%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:35PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 Nov 23, 2024 1%
No 98% Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 Nov 23, 2024 99%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:37PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 4% Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 Nov 23, 2024 1%
No 96% Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 Nov 23, 2024 99%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:38PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 30% 0%
No 70% 100%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:38PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 1% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 40% 6%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:38PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 1%
No 80% 99%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 8%
No 98% 92%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 Jan 23, 2025 0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:59PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%
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