Forecasted Questions
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:35PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Oct 23, 2024 10:35PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 12% | Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 | Nov 23, 2024 | 7% | +5% | -3% |
No | 88% | Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 | Nov 23, 2024 | 93% | -5% | +3% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:35PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Oct 23, 2024 10:35PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 | Nov 23, 2024 | 1% | +1% | +1% |
No | 98% | Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 | Nov 23, 2024 | 99% | -1% | -1% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:37PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Oct 23, 2024 10:37PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 | Nov 23, 2024 | 1% | +3% | -1% |
No | 96% | Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 | Nov 23, 2024 | 99% | -3% | +1% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:38PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Oct 23, 2024 10:38PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 30% | 0% | +30% | +0% |
No | 70% | 100% | -30% | +0% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:38PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Oct 23, 2024 10:38PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 1% | 9% | -8% | +0% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 40% | 6% | +34% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:38PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Oct 23, 2024 10:38PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 20% | 1% | +19% | +0% |
No | 80% | 99% | -19% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Oct 23, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 8% | -6% | -6% |
No | 98% | 92% | +6% | +6% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Oct 23, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025 | Jan 23, 2025 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Oct 23, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:59PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Oct 23, 2024 10:59PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |