The Suez canal seems to be improving
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Questions Forecasted
13
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 4 | 26 | 13 | 630 |
| Comments | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 324 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 4 | 21 | 9 | 127 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's all dependent on wheat and fuel prices.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
5%
(-45%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
10%
(-40%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
15%
(+15%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
70%
(+70%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?
Looking at the AfD standing, who are the main anti Ukraine, they only have about 20 percent of the seats in the Bundestag.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The right manage to stir it up more. Immigrant trouble in the Eastern states and skyrocketing petrol or gas prices.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Feb 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Togo
10%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?
The Africa Corp have logistical issues due to the loss of Syrian logistics stops. They also are struggling in their current deployments.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Opportunity presents itself in Togo organically, and Russia are invited in. The great war of Africa might see a place for Africa Corp given that its about assets and different fighting to the COIN ops in an arid climate.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Feb 9, 2025 to Aug 9, 2026
80%
No
Feb 9, 2025 to Aug 9, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
The Trump administration is perceived to have weakened NATO resolve. I could see an attack on Baltic states or Poland's air traffic control or energy infrastructure.
https://rntfnd.org/2024/05/10/hobbyists-zero-in-on-kaliningrad-jamming/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia is still focused on Ukraine war.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Having that level of collapse on Israel's border would be way too dangerous to be allowed to happen.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Palestinians being shoved into Egypt would be a disruptive force a la the Lebanese civil war. The right wing government in Israel decides to let things burn as they focus instead on extending the land of Israel to the Euphrates under the Greater Israel concept: https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/greater-israel-from-the-euphrates-to-the-nile/
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Slightly more likely given the continued split with NATO
Why might you be wrong?
Russian capacity / capability