Confirmed previous forecast
-0.143142
Relative Brier Score
19
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 4 | 27 | 19 | 28 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 27, 2024 10:24AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Aug 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025
99%
No
Aug 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025
An invasion/naval blockade of Taiwan in the next 3 years seems to have >5% probability, yet I see no evidence for it being over 1% probable during the next 6 months.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-12%)
Yes
97%
(+12%)
No
Imo, the main reason that would happen is if the geopolitical tensions between China and the US were to grow significantly. I find it likely in general, yet unlikely in the months left till the end of this year
Files
Cities other Kharkiv are too far from the front line for them to be plausibly targeted, so it's zero for them. Kharkiv is the closest of the 3, yet the overall probability of a major offensive is low, so I'll not go higher than 2 percent