Putin has strange ideas in his head, but not that strange. The Russian army (and economy) by no means has enough resources to open a new front against an EU country
-0.143665
Relative Brier Score
37
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 9 | 34 | 28 | 37 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 14 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Decoding Disinformation,
Iran-VNSAs,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Estonia
0%
Latvia
0%
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025
93%
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025
The probability of the Chinese developing that capable a model by themselves seems rather low, yet, from what I hear, the cybersecurity of the main Western AI labs is far from outstanding, so a model or the algorithms can be simply stolen. The question is whether the stolen model would be promptly released. I.e. promptly enough not to get outdated and manage get a rank of at least 3.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(+5%)
Yes
35%
(-5%)
No
Don't ever bet against Deep Learning
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-53%)
Yes
95%
(+53%)
No
Too little time left and no foreseeable reasons for it to happen
Files
Time's running out, going down by 1 percent