Forecasted Questions
Participation in currently active questions
Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 20, 2025 12:45AM
(29 days ago)
Feb 20, 2025 12:45AM
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(11 days from now)
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(11 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 21, 2025 11:50PM
(27 days ago)
Feb 21, 2025 11:50PM
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Feb 21, 2025 to Feb 21, 2026 | May 21, 2025 11:50PM | 9% | +1% | -3% |
| No | 90% | Feb 21, 2025 to Feb 21, 2026 | May 21, 2025 11:50PM | 91% | -1% | +3% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 5, 2025 02:56AM
(16 days ago)
Mar 5, 2025 02:56AM
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Mar 5, 2025 to Sep 5, 2025 | Apr 5, 2025 02:56AM | 6% | +4% | -1% |
| No | 90% | Mar 5, 2025 to Sep 5, 2025 | Apr 5, 2025 02:56AM | 94% | -4% | +1% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 12:56AM
(12 days ago)
Mar 9, 2025 12:56AM
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Mar 9, 2025 to Sep 9, 2025 | Apr 9, 2025 12:56AM | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Mar 9, 2025 to Sep 9, 2025 | Apr 9, 2025 12:56AM | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 12, 2025 02:43PM
(9 days ago)
Mar 12, 2025 02:43PM
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 13, 2025 06:22PM
(8 days ago)
Mar 13, 2025 06:22PM
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 6% | +4% | +2% |
| No | 90% | 94% | -4% | -2% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 16, 2025 01:29AM
(5 days ago)
Mar 16, 2025 01:29AM
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 5% | 7% | -2% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 19, 2025 04:31PM
(1 day ago)
Mar 19, 2025 04:31PM
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 9% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 91% | +4% | +0% |
Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 19, 2025 04:35PM
(1 day ago)
Mar 19, 2025 04:35PM
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 37% | -17% | -1% |
| No | 80% | 63% | +17% | +1% |