Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
54
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 17 | 54 | 54 | 54 |
| Comments | 2 | 19 | 68 | 68 | 68 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2026
95%
No
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Initial forecast to flight follow.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+5%)
Yes
95%
(-5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Up 5%. Market swings.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
(no change) The April "Science News" has a fascinating, in depth article "A Nuclear Revival?" about testing. Long, but accessible (I no longer spend time with CRS, UCS, SPRI, IAEA papers).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
