dowser

My feeling is it's a toss up. But there are practical problems. Like drawing and monitoring the Line of Control.

And exchange of prisoners of war and return of children who were deported and population transfers along line of control.

I was in Ukraine when OSCE monitored cease fire after 2014 and 2015 

And then the issue of neutralization and demilitarization Putin wants to turn Ukraine into Finland or Austria without Russian occupation.

And the issue of the removal of US forces from Eastern Europe out of Poland Rumania.

And the issue of elections.

Too many moving parts 

On the other hand a Korean style armistice could take 2 or 3 years to negotiate.

Trump is unpredictable and can do anything. And there is no basis to forecast what will happen. It appears he wants to return to 19nth century pure realism  like Bismarck and Metternich.

But this is not the world of empire it's the world of Artificial intelligence.

So what are the chances of just a cease fire unconditionally or with limited conditions. Like Gaza.

But when Trump asks Putin to intervene with Iran, he is is being very smart. I give him credit for that  and his overall strategy to do a reverse Nixon. Instead of going to Beijing Trump will go to Moscow and triangulate with Beijing.

I think Trump and Putin would like another Yalta or Potsdam Conference and they can divide Europe into spheres of influence.

But that's way too difficult.

I don't think Putin will stop attacking until the Ukrainians are out of Kursk and Ukraine cedes all of Donetsk and Luhansk which isn't going to happen 

I think Putin will never accept a Ukraine with sovereignty and terrrorial integrity with Western military forces in Ukraine. I think any Ukrainian leader before or after an election, Zelensky and his likely successors  will insist on that or keep fighting.

My sense us that cutting off Ukraine from US military assistance gives Putin a  chance to militarily defeat Ukraine. It's precisely the wrong card to play. So unless Ukraine is forced into a Munich like peace with partition and demilitarization, the war should last at least through October with EU and UK assistance.

I think Zelensky offer of air and sea cease fire tests Putin intentions. If accepted a cease fire would occur.

So I am going to delay forecasting until a week from now.  But Putin can have a cease fire anytime he wants and I see no indication he wants that. His economy while weakened can make it 2 years.  The war footing allows him to maintain absolute power

After all as Trump correctly notes EU paid more for Russian hydrocarbons than Ukraine aid since 2014 even after February 24.

I agree it's 50 50 at the moment