Confirmed previous forecast
0.137635
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 26 | 24 | 43 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 17 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 29, 2024 10:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
40%
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Despite the consequences, Israel has chosen a path of no return against Hezbollah, especially with regard to the recent events in Lebanon. This time, the likelihood is greater that Israel will declare war on the terrorist group.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 29, 2024 10:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
My analysis takes into account that today (07/28/2024), the date of the Venezuelan elections, taking into account exit polls and the opposition group's large electoral advantage, making it difficult for Maduro to commit widespread fraud. This makes it more difficult for Maduro to be president in 2025.
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There is a minimal probability that Putin will be absent from power by July 1, 2025, given that he has internal support in his country and, more recently, was re-elected president. Therefore, the possibility of Putin leaving power could be due to some illness or other serious factor that prevents him from carrying out his activities.