RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.018959
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	-0.096925
Mar 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022)	-0.000011
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.044375
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.194881
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.425889
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.004446
Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM UTC	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?	0.161093
Aug 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.011564
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?	-0.046081
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	-0.005301
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC	How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.044634
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC	How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.007421
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	-0.02677
May 25, 2022 02:09PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?	-0.002041
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	0.074419
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.262525
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	-0.072409
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	0.019956
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	-0.268108

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