Other nations that are known to regulate internet access could easily take such action, if they believe it to be a threat.
1.214833
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
For the same reasons given for the other C2PA question.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
35%
No
Other nations who have interests in influencing American society have spent billions of dollars in investment in AI technology. It seems likely to me that large language models would be a great tool to aid in large-scale rollout of societal influence and interference campaigns.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
Yes
58%
No
While I think it will be rolled out in the next 3 years, 2023 seems optimistic for a concept that is still in development.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Less than 4 million
0%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
I have never even heard of WorldID, and nobody else I know has heard of it either.
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The technology to accurately detect AI-generated text is still under development, and it is unlikely that it will be completed to the desired level of accuracy prior to 1 year from now. Additionally, the problem of model bias will likely be a challenge in developing such algorithms to handle the wide variety of natural speech.
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Why might you be wrong?
If said companies devoted a very large amount of resources (personnel and computing) to tackling this problem, they may be able to speed up the time frame for deployment in 2024.
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