Because authoritarian regimes will have to in order to protect themselves from exposure
3.82206
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
They will argue that it does not protect sources
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Its too available not to use it
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Total guess but I imagine public trust is down and people like anonymity
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 4 million
100%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
Because I am good at wild ass guesses
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think they will only if mandated to do so or if they receive enough public pressure.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This would include self identifying as using AI and that is not to their advantage.
Files