Forecasted Questions
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 05, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 05, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 5% | 4% | +1% | -1% |
Kyiv | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Odesa | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 05, 2024 05:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 05, 2024 05:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 7% | 27% | -20% | +12% |
No | 93% | 73% | +20% | -12% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 13, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 97% | 97% | +0% | +0% |
No | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 13, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 13, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 10% | 8% | +2% | +0% |
Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
Georgia | 5% | 4% | +1% | +1% |
Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:01AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 13, 2024 12:01AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications | 53% | 33% | +20% | -7% |
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP | 37% | 64% | -27% | +9% |
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP | 10% | 3% | +7% | -2% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:01AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 13, 2024 12:01AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:02AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 13, 2024 12:02AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 2% | 1% | +1% | -1% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 98% | 99% | -1% | +1% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:03AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 13, 2024 12:03AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025 | Dec 13, 2024 | 8% | -5% | +3% |
No | 97% | Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025 | Dec 13, 2024 | 92% | +5% | -3% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:31AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 13, 2024 12:31AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 15% | 11% | +4% | -24% |
No | 85% | 89% | -4% | +24% |