66th
Accuracy Rank

fionack

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Forecasted Questions

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 05, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 5% 4%
Kyiv 1% 1%
Odesa 1% 3%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 05, 2024 05:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 7% 27%
No 93% 73%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 97% 97%
No 3% 3%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 1%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 10% 8%
Armenia 1% 2%
Georgia 5% 4%
Kazakhstan 1% 2%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:01AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications 53% 33%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP 37% 64%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP 10% 3%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:01AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:02AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 2% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 98% 99%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:03AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025 Dec 13, 2024 8%
No 97% Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025 Dec 13, 2024 92%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 12:31AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 15% 11%
No 85% 89%
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