fionack

Initial forecast based on my sense that this kind of fracturing or loss of control is generally extreme and thus less likely than 50% of occurring. However, the fighting and potentially waning US support is concerning, and the timeframe is long. If the situation worsens maybe US support will increase but it’s hard to say. Overall, there seems to be a more than decent chance of this occurring in more than a year. May adjust down with passage of time if the situation doesn’t worsen…

Decreasing further with passage of time and no promising new numbers. There’s still a chance of a few being discovered/added at once but it’s looking more and more unlikely

Confirming previous forecast, don’t see a reason to increase the likelihood yet

Following the crowd for now. I think a desire to expand is certainly there but whether or not they do (based both on historical trends and current constraints/focus on the war) is slightly less likely than not. I am placing a greater likelihood on the rest of Africa simply in terms of number of options beyond Togo, even if Togo seems most likely as of now.

It’s unlikely to go below 50 since it was already higher before the war. The recent addition of North Korean troops (even if not many) has been all over the media and may make the perception worse. However, I also think sentiment is generally mixed and seems unlikely to get worse than the initial shock of the war with Ukraine, unless something drastic occurs. This is heavily influenced by media and how much the coalition between Russia, China, North Korea is portrayed and taken seriously. 2026 is also a ways away so it’s hard to predict in which direction things will change. My inclination is it will decrease with the war fading from attention or ending, but it has been dragging on longer than expected and recency bias is hard to overcome. I may decrease to a lower bucket at a later time. 

Based on recent historical data this seems  unlikely (e.g., inflation has been around 30% for the past year and declining in the past few months). Their economy is relatively strong and there is IMF support. I won’t put much weight on this since it’s a small piece of news, but the opening of the Grand Egyptian museum (largest archaeological museum in the world) could bring more tourists even in spite of regional conflicts. However, the surrounding conflicts are concerning and a worsening war between Israel and Iran could quickly change things. 

Based on the background description and a quick search my initial sense was the base rate for this based on number of previous incidents would be low, which @ctsats analysis confirms (2-3 incidents total since 2010, at about 7% per six months). As some of the links to news articles in the background note, as well as articles linked by others that come up after some googling - the increased tensions and threat is higher recently. However, the dialect to me still does not sound imminent and therefore not going above 15% chance to start out. 

Starting relatively low for now. Despite reports indicating there may be a test after the election, other forecasters have cited that despite there being continued activity related to nuclear weapons, there are no signs of an imminent test according to satellites and there may not need to be more tests when there have been enough in the past. This question makes it sound like this is more likely to be a show or sign of their capabilities and work on this, which doesn’t seem necessary if we can see them working on nuclear facilities already and have seen previous tests. 

Decreasing significantly due to passage of time and no discoveries. As others have noted, there could be a sudden addition of multiple at once so for now not getting too pessimistic. 

Initial forecast primarily agreeing with @DimaKlenchin’s analysis based also on my own understanding of German sentiment. There is certainly a decline in support for Ukraine for a variety of reasons but I don’t see that changing unless there is some extreme event that drives up the concern for Ukraine (it seems unlikely for an event as large as the initial invasion to occur which seems like what would be required to shift this to increase). The question for me is more one of how much will it decrease. It was under 9% for the first two years of data which to me seems quite low but there must have been a reason and the shock and concern for them in the war is wearing off (as terrible as that is), which means we could slowly return to that “normal”. That could take a while but end of 2025 is quite a ways away. For now I think the past year trend seems likely to continue and we will still be in the 20-29% range.