fionack

Agree with the crowd on all points - the ongoing civil war and fragmented country make this nearly impossible. However, there is some non-zero chance that there will be staged elections of some sort, or intended national elections where there are cancellations in key districts. I think due to the timeframe that chance is greater than 1 percent but the process of getting an actual national election going typically takes longer than a year in my mind, even if it is not meant to be a “real” election. 

This seems as likely as the 6month version of this question - if it doesn’t happen now it doesn’t seem likely later… there has been so much escalation recently and concern from the US as indicated by them sending troops to Cyprus… maybe sending those troops will deter more aggression but seems very unlikely. 

All the news points to this being a war - multiple large strikes by Israel. Holding out 5% in case Israel doesn’t claim it is a war?

Passage of time and there don’t seem to be any consequences to them violating the deal (if the violation even is noticed/reported)

Passage of time 

With passage of time it just seems more unlikely to be discovered if it does occur.