SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 

fit-island-60

About:

Show more
View All Badges »
All Time Stats

0.771246

Relative Brier Score

2

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 2
Comments 0 0 0 0 2
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 2
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology

Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation

New Prediction
How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?
fit-island-60 made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
100%
Less than 4 million
0%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
From the worldcoin website, there appear to only be 1.5 million users now. That likely include most of the earlier adopters willing to try new things before they trend later, if successful.  
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The uptake rate for this app and its worldID function might be higher than my estimate. 
Files
New Badge
fit-island-60 earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Badge
fit-island-60 earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
I think there will be enough interest in them doing this that they are working on this now. 
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The ability for Social Media platforms to determine AI generated text will likely be determined by support from AI apps and the AI community building that into their public offerings. That may not be the case for all AI platforms and so the social media platforms may struggle to be able do this consistently. 
Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel