Forecasted Questions
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 02:34PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 02:34PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 | Dec 16, 2024 | 0% | +4% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 03:29PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 03:29PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | 22% | -17% | -11% |
No | 95% | 78% | +17% | +11% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 02:45PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 02:45PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 60% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 86% | -26% | +10% |
No | 40% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 14% | +26% | -10% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025 | Dec 25, 2024 | 8% | -4% | +2% |
No | 96% | Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025 | Dec 25, 2024 | 92% | +4% | -2% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 06:24PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 06:24PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 6% | 1% | +5% | +0% |
No | 94% | 99% | -5% | +0% |