Forecasted Questions
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 21, 2024 03:21PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Oct 21, 2024 03:21PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | Oct 21, 2024 to Apr 21, 2026 | Jan 21, 2025 | 7% | +23% | -2% |
| No | 70% | Oct 21, 2024 to Apr 21, 2026 | Jan 21, 2025 | 93% | -23% | +2% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 05:41PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 05:41PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Oct 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2025 | Jan 25, 2025 | 8% | +7% | -1% |
| No | 85% | Oct 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2025 | Jan 25, 2025 | 92% | -7% | +1% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:08AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 01:08AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 | Jan 28, 2025 | 21% | -17% | -11% |
| No | 96% | Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 | Jan 28, 2025 | 79% | +17% | +11% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:08AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 01:08AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 1% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 94% | 99% | -5% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 6% | 8% | -2% | +1% |
| Armenia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 8% | 4% | +4% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 05:25PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 05:25PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 28% | +7% | +7% |
| No | 65% | 72% | -7% | -7% |