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geoffodlum

Geoff Odlum
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Forecasted Questions

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 02:34PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 4% Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 Dec 16, 2024 0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 03:29PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 22%
No 95% 78%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 02:45PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 60% Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 Oct 25, 2024 86%
No 40% Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 Oct 25, 2024 14%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 4% Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025 Dec 25, 2024 8%
No 96% Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025 Dec 25, 2024 92%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 06:24PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 6% 1%
No 94% 99%
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