139th

Accuracy Rank

geoffodlum

Geoff Odlum

About:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/geoffodlum/
Global affairs consultant and former U.S. Foreign Service Officer. Served 28 years as a diplomat in London, Algiers, Istanbul, Vienna, Baghdad, Kabul, and the State Department in Washington. Worked on nuclear nonproliferation; emerging technologies; counter-terrorism; crisis management; Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan; European security; and energy geopolitics. Started a national security & technology policy consulting company (Odlum Global Strategies) in 2018, advising governments and companies on technology impacts on security, governance, and geopolitics.

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Forecasted Questions

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 15, 2024 to May 15, 2025	Dec 15, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 15, 2024 to May 15, 2025	Dec 15, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 09:23PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	5%	1%	+4%	-1%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	15%	8%	+8%	-5%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	20%	27%	-7%	+0%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	25%	37%	-12%	+2%
More than or equal to 90	35%	27%	+8%	+4%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	8%	-7%	+0%
No	99%	92%	+7%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 08:53PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 12:14AM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2026	Feb 20, 2025	12%	+23%	+1%
No	65%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2026	Feb 20, 2025	88%	-23%	-1%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 11:01PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Feb 20, 2025	0%	+4%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 01:27AM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	28%	34%	-6%	+1%
No	72%	66%	+6%	-1%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 09:24PM UTC
(15 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Dec 21, 2024	12%	-2%	+0%
No	90%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Dec 21, 2024	88%	+2%	+0%