Forecasted Questions
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 05:41PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 05:41PM UTC
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Oct 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2025 | Jan 25, 2025 | 13% | +2% | +4% |
| No | 85% | Oct 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2025 | Jan 25, 2025 | 87% | -2% | -4% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:08AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 01:08AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 | Jan 28, 2025 | 22% | -18% | -10% |
| No | 96% | Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 | Jan 28, 2025 | 78% | +18% | +10% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:08AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 01:08AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 1% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 94% | 99% | -5% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 6% | 7% | -1% | +0% |
| Armenia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 8% | 4% | +4% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 03:44PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 03:44PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Qatar | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 2% | 2% | +0% | -1% |
| Latvia | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 5% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 93% | 95% | -2% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 04:29PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 04:29PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 1% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 96% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 99% | -3% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 06:18PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 06:18PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025 | Dec 14, 2024 | 1% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 96% | Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025 | Dec 14, 2024 | 99% | -3% | +0% |