Forecasted Questions
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 08:58PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 08:58PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 08:58PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 08:58PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Qatar | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 09:03PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 09:03PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025 | Oct 6, 2024 | 16% | -15% | +5% |
| No | 99% | Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025 | Oct 6, 2024 | 84% | +15% | -5% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 09:20PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 09:20PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 5% | +10% | -2% |
| No | 85% | 95% | -10% | +2% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025 | Oct 6, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025 | Oct 6, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025 | Oct 6, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025 | Oct 6, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 09, 2024 02:13PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Sep 09, 2024 02:13PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025 | Oct 9, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025 | Oct 9, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 14, 2024 02:05AM UTC
(17 days ago)
Sep 14, 2024 02:05AM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Sep 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2025 | Dec 14, 2024 | 5% | +10% | +1% |
| No | 85% | Sep 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2025 | Dec 14, 2024 | 95% | -10% | -1% |